CHARTS

New Packers GM - What to expect?

Packer fans are bracing for their first GM change in a few years. What about Brian Gutekunst’s scouting past can be examined by looking at the Packers record of acquiring draft picks and undrafted free agents?

I’ve created a “Brian Gutekunst story” to show some of the Packers history when “Gutie” was in charge of southeast college scouting from 2001-2011.

There is a tab for both draft picks and undrafted free agents (UDFAs). This chart is filterable. Click a state to see the only those prospects. Feel free to maximize the chart using the button on the lower right.

Items of note from the above chart:

  • These charts assume that Brian Gutekunst had the final say when drafting players, which he did not. Keep in mind that Mike Sherman was GM from 2001-2004, though it was rumored that Ron Wolf handled the 2001 draft duties.
  • However, one can assume that scouting reports from players in the southeast were used when making these decisions, and Brian Gutekunst WAS involved in that process. I’m counting Texas as part of the southeast, but I’m not entirely sure that it is.
  • The Packers “hit” on 45 draft picks during this ten year period. 19 of those “hits” (including Josh Sitton and Randall Cobb) came from the southeast.
  • There were 28 undrafted free agents to make an appreciable contribution to the Packers over this period of time. 13 of those players came from the southeast.
  • Two of the top three undrafted free agents during this period (Sam Shields and Tramon Williams) came from the southeast. The arrival of Charles Woodson in 2006 may have positively influenced the development of these athletically talented defensive backs.
  • From 2001 to 2011, the six draft picks to underperform most (including first rounders Derek Sherrod, Justin Harrell, and Jamal Reynolds) were all from the southeast. I give the Packers a pass for Terrence Murphy, though, as he seemed like a stud before a neck injury cut his career short.
  • Holy crap, the Packers got a ton of undrafted free agent talent from the state of Michigan.
  • That A-A-Ron Rodgers guy seems pretty good. You should keep an eye out for him.

Notes about how this chart was made:

  • Player data and Approximate Value (AV) data is from Pro Football Reference and their excellent Draft Search Tool.
  • I’ve used the Football Reference Draft Value Chart to get a rough approximation of player value above what was expected at that draft position. Career Value minus expected value equals relative value. I consider anyone who beats expected value by five or more a “hit”.
  • Undrafted free agents have an expected value of zero. Anything you get from them is gravy, so anyone with a career value above zero is a “hit”. I didn’t incluse UDFAs that were cut before the regular season and landed with other teams (J.J. Jansen and Kevin Kaesviharn).

Conclusion:

Past results do not guarantee future performance. However, these draft results are quite good, and were impressive enough for Brian Gutekunst to be promoted to director of college scouting in 2012, and to GM in 2018. I’m interested to see what the future holds for the franchise with Gutekunst in charge.

Since Gutekunst was director of college scouting from 2012-2017, I’m considering making a “Part II” of this series, going over draft results of the Packers from 2012 to the present. Let me know if this is something that interests you.

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